Sunshine returned to the ArkLaTex Monday ahead of a cold front that could bring a little rain Monday night.  We should see quiet weather until Friday when our next threat of strong to severe storms will return. Warmest air of the year early next week?

Monday night rain:  Thunderstorms moved through the southern half of the ArkLaTex Sunday afternoon and evening.  Sunshine returned in the wake of those storm today.  Another cold front will move through the area Monday night and will bring clouds and some scattered showers Monday night.  A little thunder will be possible.  

We will then see a mix of sunshine and clouds Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with mainly dry conditions.  Temperatures will be closer to normal for the next few days.  Lows Monday night will be in the low to middle 50s.  We will see highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 60s and lower 70s.  That will be followed by another warming trend leading up to our next round of strong to severe storms Friday.  Highs by Friday will likely return to the upper 70s to lower 80s.

More end of the week severe weather?  With the warmer air returning, so will the threat of severe weather.  Another disturbance will move through the area Friday and bring thunderstorms.  The Storms Prediction Center already has a slight severe weather risk area out for our area and an enhanced risk out for areas to the north of the ArkLaTex.  As of right now, it appears that the atmosphere will support the development of storms that will bring the potential of damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes.  We will more detail on these threats later in the week. 

Rain potential: Rain potential could be a good indicator as to where the threat of severe weather later this week will be. A blend of the long-range models shows that rainfall potential will likely be over 1” over the northern edge of the area and below ½” for most of the rest of the area.

Long-range outlook:  We could see a lingering chance of some rain through the weekend with a significant warming trend developing.  Temperatures could flirt with 90 degrees by the middle part of next week.  The 10-day period could end with a chance for some more scattered storms.