The threat of strong to severe storms will return to the ArkLaTex Friday afternoon and early Friday evening.  The weekend begins with sunshine and ends with a shot at some rain.  More storms will be possible late next week.

Severe Weather Risk in the week ahead

Friday’s severe weather has two areas to watch for tornadoes:  Not much has changed from yesterday in the placement and intensity of the storms that are expected to develop over our part of the country.  The Storm Prediction Center now has a level 4 moderate severe weather risk out for much of the Lower Mississippi Valley.  The risk of severe weather drops off quickly as you look to the west into the ArkLaTex.  All severe weather threats will be possible Friday.  Based on the latest hi-res models, the biggest concern for most of our area will be damaging wind.  We will have two areas for the possibility of tornadoes.  The first will be the extreme northern edge of the area late Friday morning into the early afternoon hours.  The second will be the extreme eastern and northeastern edges of the area late Friday afternoon and early Friday evening.  Tornadoes Friday will likely be the most numerous NE of the ArkLaTex closer to the Mississippi river.  Keep in mind that we are still a day away from this event and changes are still possible.  It would be a good idea to review your tornado safety plan especially if you live in the eastern half of the area.

Futurecast storm outlook:  Futurecast continues to show a cloudy sky over the ArkLaTex Thursday night with a few strong storms grazing the northern edge of the area late in the night.  More storms will develop late Friday morning near the NW edge of our area.  This activity could pose a brief risk of damaging wind and possibly a tornado as it moves across the northern edge of the area early Friday afternoon.  Storms will then increase near the AR/TX/LA lines later in the afternoon.  These storms will pose a damaging wind threat with some hail possible.  The risk of tornadoes from this activity will slowly increase as they move across the eastern half of the area. Below is a loop from Futurecast showing areas that could have the best support for a few tornadoes.  You can see that these swaths are most numerous Friday evening and Friday night to our east and northeast.    

Futurecast 36-hour rotation potential forecast

Rain potential: Most of our area will likely see rainfall totals of ½ to 1”.  The chances of seeing more than an inch will be highest over the northern half of the area.  Amounts will likely be lighter and possibly below ¼” over the southern half of the area.  

Long-range outlook:  The weekend will begin with some sunshine and pleasant temperatures Saturday.  A little rain will be possible especially over the southern half of the area Sunday. We will then take a break from the rain during the first half of next week.  Enjoy this break if you can as next week will close with more showers and thunderstorms that could begin Thursday and continue through next weekend.  We likely won’t see much change in temperatures as highs will mainly be in the 70s and low 80s.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s and 60s.

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