A cold front will stall over the NW part of the ArkLaTex Thursday bringing some scattered strong thunderstorms.  Rain looks likely for Friday night and Saturday.  Cooler air returns this weekend with another warm-up next week.  Christmas still looking dry and mild.

High temperatures so far today

The warm weather pattern continued over the ArkLaTex Wednesday.  Temperatures began at levels that are 30 degrees above normal for this time of year.  Lows Wednesday morning were in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Thanks to lots of clouds, we won’t warm up too much today as highs will likely be in the mid to upper 70s.  Expect similar conditions Thursday.  Lows Thursday morning will begin in the mid to upper 60s.  Daytime highs Thursday afternoon will once again be well above normal and near-record levels as we top out in the upper 70s.

Futurecast shows the potential impacts of a cold front that could stall Thursday over the northwestern part of the area.  Ahead of the front tonight, we will stay cloudy with a chance for a scattered thundershower over the north edge of the area.  As the front sags south tomorrow, it will trigger more scattered storms that could be on the strong side.  One or two storms could be severe with damaging wind becoming the main concern.  The threat of storms will shift back to the northwest Thursday night and most of the area will remain dry Friday.  The front will then make its final push through the area Friday night and Saturday.  Some thunder will be possible Friday night near the front.  We will see lingering showers for most of the area Saturday as the rain gradually ends from northwest to southeast. 

Models including Futurecast show that the heaviest rain from now through Saturday will occur over the northwestern quarter of the area that gets the most rain Thursday.  These areas will likely see amounts of over two inches in spots. Rainfall totals will likely decrease as you look to the southeast where amounts will end up in the range of ½ to 1”.

Much cooler air will settle in behind the front this weekend.  Temperatures Saturday will likely drop during the day into the 50s.  Sunday will be a mostly cloudy, mainly dry, and chilly day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  The main upper-level disturbance associated with the front will float over the area Monday and bring another shot for some showers.  Once this system clears, upper-level high pressure will build back over the Gulf of Mexico next week setting up another warming trend with most of next week looking dry. Highs will likely warm back into the 70s and lows will return to the 40s and 50s.  Christmas Day is still looking dry with above-normal temperatures.  Look for highs in the low to middle 60s and lows in the low to middle 40s.

-Todd Warren