The warming trend that we have experienced over the past few days will continue through Thursday.  Strong to severe storms will move across the ArkLaTex Friday with tornadoes possible.  More storms will be possible Sunday and again late next week.

Severe Weather Risk in the week ahead

Friday severe weather:  Now that we have the warm and humid air back in the ArkLaTex, we will be waiting for the arrival of our next disturbance that will bring thunderstorms to the area Friday.  We will likely see storms develop to the west of our area Thursday night.  This activity will likely be near severe limits as it enters the northwestern part of the area Friday morning.  These storms will gradually strengthen during the day Friday as they march across the area.  It still appears that the strongest storms and biggest severe weather threat will be where they arrive later in the day over the eastern edge of the area.  The latest SPC outlook indicates a marginal severe weather risk over the NW part of the area.  The risk gradually increases to a level 3 enhanced risk over the eastern edge.  All severe weather threats will be possible including damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes.  Given how warm our area will be, a few strong tornadoes will be possible, but that risk will be highest to the east of our area. 

Windy & warm ahead of the storms:  Futurecast shows that we will see a cloudy sky over the ArkLaTex Wednesday night. Thursday will begin with lots of clouds and will likely end with some sunshine during the afternoon.  It will also be rather windy Thursday with sustained winds out of the south at 15 mph.  We will likely see gusts of 20-30 mph. Clouds will increase Thursday night with a few storms possible very late Thursday night over the NW edge of the area.  The threat of storms will increase from west to east during the day Friday.  The severe weather threat will move out of our area late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.  The weekend will begin with some sunshine Saturday, but more showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Monday.  Severe weather during the end of the weekend is looking doubtful, but can’t totally be ruled out.

Rain potential: Futurecast continues to be rather bearish on the amount of rain that could fall on our area.  As of right now, it shows that amounts could be near 1” over the northern edge of the area with lighter amounts over E TX and NW LA.  It shows amounts here could be below ½”.  Other models suggest amounts over the southern half of the area will be in the range of ½ to 1”. 

More rain next week:  I mentioned the storms that could return by the end of the weekend.  We could see a third round of showers and thunderstorms late next week on Friday and Saturday.  The good news is that temperatures will stay rather pleasant during the next 10 days.  Highs will mainly be in the 70s and low 80s.  Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s and 60s.

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