It has been a breezy and mostly sunny Sunday but big changes will begin overnight into Monday! This evening and tonight will be the prelude to wet and stormy weather.
Clouds were on the increase as our high pressure was shoved eastward. Our next weathermaker will begin to get organized to our west. A surface trough of low pressure along with an attendant cold front and warm front are still to our west. Showers developed through Sunday evening as a southeasterly flow brought in moisture. The warm front initially moves very slowly but will be the first to move across the Arklatex with showers and a few rumbles. In addition, plentiful moisture will surge into our area as a strong southwesterly flow develops. This system, along with a cold front, will enter the ArkLaTex mid-morning Monday and exit later in the day. An upper-level trough of low pressure to the west will be moving in our direction, as well.
When all is factored into the messy mix, it appears that strong to severe storms could develop as early as Monday morning and likely increase as the system progresses eastward in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe storms for that part of the ArkLaTex situated along and south of I-30 and a Marginal Risk north of I-30. But there is an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5 the highest) for the SE third of NW Louisiana and neighboring East Texas counties. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Everything should settle by Sunday evening. Afternoon high temperatures will be either side of 70° Monday falling into the 50s to near 60° for the rest of the week. Morning low temperatures will be in the upper 40s north to near 60° south Monday and in the 40s through much of the week.
But do note that the coldest morning will be on Thanksgiving day with temperatures in the mid-30s north to the upper-30s south. There is an outside chance that there may be a few showers on Thanksgiving afternoon but a better chance of some showers and a cool-down as another system moves through next weekend.