Scattered areas of showers and t’storms will be possible through the weekend. Drier weather returns for the Fourth of July. The extreme heat could return next week with triple-digits again possible.
Near-normal temperatures: Temperatures over the next few days should be pretty close to normal for this time of year. Lows Thursday morning ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thanks to an increase in the humidity, it will be warmer for the foreseeable future. Lows Friday will likely be in the low to middle 70s. Daytime highs will settle into the lower 90s with a few upper 80s over the southwestern edge of the area. We will likely see similar temperatures through the weekend.
Rain returns for a few days: Futurecast shows that we will likely see the scattered showers and thunderstorms that have developed across the area today come to an end Thursday evening. We will see a partly to mostly cloudy sky Thursday night. Expect a mix of clouds and a little sunshine Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop during the heat of the afternoon. As of right now, it appears that the rain chances Friday will be highest over the southwestern part of the area. It is possible that we could see more persistent rain over deep ETX Friday night while the rest of the area will be dry. Rain chances will likely increase for all of the area Saturday and then start to decrease Sunday.
What’s causing the rain? The reason for the increase in our rain chances is a disturbance over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates that it is a chance that this could briefly become a tropical depression as it approaches the Texas coast. Models continue to show that this weakening system will likely track north into NC TX to near Dallas by the weekend.
How much rain: Models are rather split on how much rain we might see in the ArkLaTex. Futurecast is rather pessimistic on its rainfall projections showing that totals will likely be below ½ for all of the area. Other models do show that we could see scattered locations receive one to two inches of rain. That is not surprising given the scattered nature of the rain. It will be possible that some locations get next to nothing and others receive two inches.
Triple-digit heat next week: A hot and dry weather pattern will settle back over the ArkLaTex next week. A large area of upper-level high pressure will create a mainly dry Fourth of July. Temperatures on the Fourth will likely soar into the middle 90s. Rain will be possible but most of the area should remain dry. We will likely stay dry through most of next week with only a slight chance for a stray afternoon storm next Friday and Saturday. Expect a warming trend next week as highs will likely return to near 100 degrees. Overnight lows will warm into the mid to upper 70s.