The chance for showers and thunderstorms will stick around Thursday with much cooler temperatures. We will settle into a rather soggy weather pattern from late this weekend through all of next week with below-normal temperatures.
Finally, a decent break from the heat: A cold front is easing its way through the ArkLaTex today. Ahead of the front, Wednesday temperatures again soared into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Behind the front, highs have mainly been in the low to middle 90s. All of the ArkLaTex will cool down Thursday thanks to clouds and more rain. Lows Thursday morning will settle into the upper 60s to lower 70s. We will see daytime highs Thursday more than ten degrees below normal as we struggle to climb into the low to middle 80s. The week will end with warmer temperatures Friday and this weekend. Highs will likely return to the low to middle 90s which is still a little below normal for this time of year.
More rain Thursday: Futurecast shows that the scattered showers and thunderstorms that are occurring over the ArkLaTex Wednesday afternoon will decrease and move out of the area Wednesday evening. Most of Wednesday night is looking dry, however, we will likely see more scattered showers develop over the northern part of the area late Wednesday night. This rain will increase Thursday morning with some thunderstorms looking likely. The main focus for the stronger storms and heavier rain Thursday will be over the southern half of the area in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana. We will continue to see a slight chance for scattered showers Friday and Saturday. The rain will then begin to increase again Sunday. More on that later.
A few strong storms: The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a chance that one or two storms Wednesday and Thursday could possibly reach severe limits. If we do have any severe weather issues, Damaging wind will likely be the cause. As of right now, we have a ‘marginal’ severe risk which is 1 on a scale of 5. This will include all of the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening and the southern part of the area Thursday.
Rainfall potential through Thursday: Most of the ArkLaTex will see some rain during the next few days. Given the scattered nature of the rain over the next few days, we will likely see a wide range of rainfall totals. It’s possible that many areas will see less than ¼”. The good news is that it’s also possible that many areas could see more than two inches of rain.
A soggy week next week: Long-range models continue to show the potential for some very heavy rain next week. If you add the rain from the next few days to that which is expected next week, we could see totals of two to five inches in the next 10 days. The potential is there for higher totals. If the models are correct, parts of the ArkLaTex could see more than six inches of rain. That is nearly triple the rain that we normally receive during a typical August. We will see a good chance of rain starting Sunday. Rain chances will stay rather high into next weekend. The rain will keep temperatures below normal next week with highs mainly in the 80s. Stay Tuned!