Heavy rain will become an increasing concern to part of the ArkLaTex late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A strong cold front will then bring the coolest air of the season into the area by the end of the weekend.
One more day of above normal temps: Temperatures stayed above normal across all of the ArkLaTex Tuesday with highs returning to the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday will begin with lows that will be close to ten degrees above normal in the 60s and lower 70s. Daytime highs Wednesday will not be as hot as we have seen recently thanks to more clouds but we will stay above normal with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Get through Wednesday and then we will start to turn much cooler.
The threat of heavy rain begins: Futurecast shows that we will likely an increase in clouds over most of the ArkLaTex Tuesday night. A persistent southeasterly wind will continue to increase the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of a cold front that will be approaching the area. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the northern edge of the area late Wednesday afternoon. This activity will slowly develop more to the southeast on Wednesday evening. It will likely begin to decrease in intensity on Wednesday night. While the risk of severe weather is looking very low. We will have to worry about the potential for flood-producing rainfall over the northwest quarter of the area.
Impressive rainfall totals possible. The blend of models continues to show that rainfall totals from late Wednesday through Thursday night will be heaviest over the northwest quarter of the area with two to around four inches of rain. Rainfall potential looks lower as you look southeast. The middle part of the area is in line to receive one to two inches of rain. Amounts will likely be less than 1” over the southeast quarter of the area. Hi-res models including Futurecast show that we could see a few areas that see even heavier rain. It shows that totals in a few spots could be in the range of five to eight inches. The ‘worst case’ numbers from the model blend also show that the NW part of the area could see totals in the 5 to 7-inch range. Flooding could become an issue if these rainfall potential numbers become a reality. Stay tuned!
Get the jackets ready? It still looks likely that we will easily see the coolest air of the season so far settle into the ArkLaTex by this weekend. Most of the area will dip into the 50s Friday night. Overnight lows will then likely dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s over most of the area on Saturday and Sunday nights. The last time Shreveport experienced temperatures in the 50s was back on May 22. You have to go back to last April to find the last date that we dropped into the 40s. Daytime highs this weekend will be quite pleasant in the low to middle 70s. A warming trend will occur next week. Highs will gradually warm to the low to middle 80s. Lows will gradually warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Most of next week is looking dry as our next chance of rain will likely hold off until next Wednesday night or Thursday.