It is a “ Wash, Rinse, Repeat” forecast. Here we go again! We are looking at a few dry and unusually warm days. High pressure is now to our east and setting us up with a very moist southerly wind at the surface. In part, this will lead to a well-above-normal warming trend. Morning low temperatures will range from either side of 40° Sunday to near 60° Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s to near 70° Sunday to the low to mid-60s by Thursday.
By next Tuesday, our dry days will transition to yet another bout of rain, some of which could be excessive. This will be due to an area of strong and stagnant high pressure off the Florida east coast and a very strong upper-level low-pressure system well to our west. We will find a resulting southerly flow at the surface and a southwesterly flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere. In other words, our atmosphere will be soggy from top to bottom.
The upper-level system to our west will gradually move into the southern plains and our rain will begin to increase, possibly by Tuesday night, and lasting into very early Thursday. The Weather Prediction Center has the entire ArkLaTex in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from Tuesday night through Wednesday into Wednesday night. 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible. That will not bode well with our already saturated soil. It appears that a cold front will push slowly through our area late Thursday into Friday with afternoon highs either side of 50 degrees by Friday and morning lows near or below freezing by Saturday and Sunday mornings.