Hot week with rain likely returning this weekend

Most of the week ahead will feature dry weather with rather hot days and mild nights.  Minus a chance of rain on Wednesday, we will likely have to wait until this weekend to see a cold front bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Mild nights and hot days:   After another dry and rather hot weekend, don’t expect to see much change from now through Friday.  Tuesday will get off to a rather mild start with lows in the low to middle 60s.  We will once again see daytime temperatures soar into the low to middle 90s.  It will stay rather hot each day through Friday as daytime highs will stay mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s.  The humidity will gradually increase during the week thanks to a persistent wind out of the southeast.  Overnight lows will likely warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s by the end of the week.

A little midweek rain?  We will likely see some strong to severe thunderstorms develop well to the northwest of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday.  Futurecast shows that ahead of the storms we will see another mostly clear sky Monday night.  Expect plenty of sunshine in our area on Tuesday.  The storms that develop Tuesday in Oklahoma, could move into the NW corner of the area Tuesday evening and will be weakening as they arrive.  The same disturbance will give us another chance for a few scattered thundershowers on Wednesday.  We will then settle into a drier pattern until the weekend.

Rain returns this weekend:  There is good model agreement that a cold front will bring a good chance of more widespread rainfall this weekend.  As of right now, it appears that the threat of rain will begin Saturday, reach its peak Saturday night, and then come to an end possibly as late as Monday. Severe weather can not be totally ruled out, but as of right now, the risk is looking rather low.  We will know more as we get closer to the weekend. We will then settle back into a rather dry weather pattern for the middle of next week with a slight drop in temperatures behind the front.  Daytime highs will retreat to the mid to upper 80s.  Overnight lows will fall into the low to middle 60s.  

10-day rainfall:  A look at a blend of models shows that rainfall potential during the next 10 days will be highest over the northern part of the ArkLaTex where totals of 1.5 to 2” will be possible. This is the part of the area that will be closest to the path of the main upper-level low.  Rainfall totals over the southern part of the area will likely end up being in the range of ½ to 1”.  This will not be enough to end the drought conditions over the area.  Normal rainfall during such a period at the end of September is a little over 1”.  This will likely not bring much drought relief, but it will help keep the drought conditions from getting worse.  Stay Tuned.