The summer of 2022 will likely turn out to be one of the top five hottest summers on record over parts of the ArkLaTex. As of this writing, this summer ranks as the second hottest summer ever in Shreveport with records that date back to the 1870s. In my previous article, I answered some questions about the upcoming winter’s temperatures based ONLY on what happened in the winters that followed the previous five hottest summers.
Now it’s time to answer a few questions on just how wet or dry this winter could be and whether or not we will see any snow. Will we see another ‘snowmageddon’?
- Will this winter be wetter or drier than normal? If the summers of the past are any indication the answer is that drought relief could be on the way. After what could be a rather dry fall, there is a 60% chance that we will see above-normal rainfall this winter.
- Could we see one of the wettest winters on record? There is a 40% chance that we experience one of the fifteen wettest winters.
- If the current drought continues through the fall, could it get worse this winter? There is a 20% chance that we experience one of the top twenty driest winters with less than 60% of our normal rainfall.
- Will we see any snow? There is an 80% chance that we will see snow, however, it likely it won’t be much. If we do see snow, there is a 75% chance that we will see less than 1” for the whole winter.
- Will we see another ‘snowmageddon’? It can’t be ruled out. There is a 20% chance that we see at least 5” of snow this winter. However, as you read in my previous article, it’s very doubtful that we will be nearly as cold as we were during 2021’s ‘Snowmageddon’ event.
These ‘predictions’ on rain and snow based ONLY on the hottest summers of the past look to show that we will have a wetter than normal winter with some snow but not much. There is a wide range of possibilities on what could happen with rain and snow. The driest month during those winters was December 2010 when we received only 0.41” of rain. On the other hand, the wettest month was January of 1999 when Shreveport received 12.96”. In summary, chances are that we will have a warmer and wetter winter than normal with a little snow. It will be interesting to see how the weather this winter plays out.