The summer of 2022 will likely turn out to be one of the top five hottest summers on record over parts of the ArkLaTex. As of this writing, this summer ranks as the second hottest summer ever in Shreveport with records that date back to the 1870s. Soon temperatures will start to slowly cool down and you might be wondering if this summer could give us a hint of what to expect for the upcoming winter.
I figured it would be interesting to look up the weather for the winters that followed the previous top five summers. I created a very crude ‘forecast’ based ONLY on the number of times certain things such as snow, freezing temperatures, etc happened during those five winters. In this article, I will focus on just how warm or cold the upcoming winter could be by using the hottest summers of the past to answer the following questions:
- Will it be hotter or colder than normal? There is an 80% chance that we will experience above-average temperatures.
- Will temperatures drop below 20? There is a 60% chance that we will have at least one day with lows in the teens and a 20% chance that we have three.
- How many times will we climb to at least 80 degrees? There is a 60% chance we will have at least four days and a 40% chance that we will never hit 80.
- When will we have our first freeze? The average date of our first freeze in Shreveport is November 15th. There is a 100% chance that our first freeze will occur after November 15th. There is a 40% chance it happens in December and a 20% chance it happens after December 15th.
- How many times will we experience freezing temperatures? In a typical winter, Shreveport experiences 39 days with temperatures at or below freezing. There is a 100% chance that we will have less than the normal 39 days. There is an 80% chance that we will have fewer than 20 days and a 20% chance we have fewer than 10 days at or below freezing.
So it’s safe to say that the winters that followed the top five hottest summers are typically warmer than normal. That’s probably not much of a surprise, in fact, the warmest temperature recorded during those five winters was 87 degrees. It can get rather cold however, the coldest temperature recorded during those five winters was 15 degrees.
Again, the above ‘predictions’ do not consider anything but what happened with temperatures in the winters following the five hottest summers. It will be interesting to see if this upcoming winter will be an exception. You might be wondering if the current drought conditions will continue or if will we have snow. I let the hot summers of the past answer those questions here: