I would like for this update to be rather brief but there is more to look at than originally thought. After today It appears rough weather will prevail for the next few days. Today (Tuesday) and tonight will be the calm before the storms. First, afternoon highs will be in the 70s through Friday with lows in the 50s through the next 7 days. It appears mostly cloudy skies and a few showers will be found today. However, tonight will find increasingly available moisture leading to decent conditions for the development of scattered storms.

We will find an exceedingly complex system coming together for much stronger storms for late Wednesday into Wednesday night before ending Thursday. An upper-level trough of low pressure will emerge from the west into the western part of Oklahoma and Texas. Also, let’s throw in a surface low with an attendant warm front and a trailing cold front that enters the mix from the west enhancing the possibility of severe weather. By Wednesday afternoon the warm front surges through much of our area with increasing chances of storms with some possibly strong to severe.

The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk, (3 of 5 the highest), of severe storms for Harrison and Panola Counties in East Texas and a Slight Risk, (2 of 5 the highest), for essentially the rest of the ArkLaTex late Wednesday night through early Thursday. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds, and heavy rainfall are the main threats. At this time the tornado threat for the ArkLaTex appears low. The storms will move eastward and away from our area by Thursday as the cold front exits the ArkLaTex.

All is well until yet another fairly strong system invades the ArkLaTex by Friday night into Saturday. As of now, it should be a rain event but will be monitored closely.